CAN YOUR QUARTERBACK WIN THE BIG GAME?

Winning football can be credited to a host of variables in the college arena. Some teams have great defenses, some have elite playmakers and some have generational coaches that propel them to victory. In the end, the most popular question is focused on the quarterback for your favorite program, can he win the big game?

I decided to take a look at the quarterbacks for the top 12 teams in the College Football Playoff. I set up the baseline for the volume of work using their last 8 starts against an AP Top 25 opponent. Quarterbacks can put up stats against lesser competition, but the goal of this review is to see who shows up in bigger games. The majority of these QB’s have 8 or more starts under their belt. The exceptions are USC’s QB Caleb Williams ( 4 starts), Clemson’s QB DJ U (6 starts) and the 2 Michigan QB’s in McNamara / McCarthy ( 5 starts). I also pulled the stats for Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart and his 2 career starts against ranked teams.

The eye test can be deceiving because it factors in your perception of the player. In essence a “blind resume” can be a good gauge of who is comfortable in big games, but also who has the ability to own the offense. One factor that a blind resume or stats really can’t comprehend is the mobility of a player in the pocket and ability to extend a play. All of these quarterbacks have shown the ability to use their legs to create, which is paramount to winning. The stats below only focus on the passing game since we all know that a quarterback must make the clutch throws to win.

THE QUARTERBACKS:

• CJ STROUD: OHIO STATE. 6-2 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• STETSON BENNETT IV: GEORGIA 6-2 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• BRYCE YOUNG: ALABAMA. 6-2 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• HENDON HOOKER: TENNESSEE 6-2 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• BO NIX: OREGON 4-4 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• MAX DUGGAN: TCU. 6-2 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• CADE McNAMARA / JJ McCARTHY: MICHIGAN 3-2 in 5 career games vs AP TOP 25
• DJ U: CLEMSON 4-2 in 6 career games vs AP TOP 25
• CALEB WILLIAMS: USC. 1-3 in 4 career games vs AP TOP 25
• JAYDEN DANIELS: LSU. 4-4 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• DTR: UCLA. 3-5 in last 8 games vs AP TOP 25
• JAXSON DART: OLE MISS. 1-1 in 2 career starts vs AP TOP 25

AN INTERESTING BLIND RESUME COMPARISON: (Answers at the end)

• QB A: In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 30.12 completions, 40.37 attempts, 390.75 yards, 3.25 TD’s and 0.25 INTS.
• -QB B In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 24 completions, 36.87 attempts, 331 yards, 2.37 TD’s and 0.62 INTS.
• -QB C: In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 21.37 completions, 31.25 attempts, 310.12 yards, 3 TD’s and 0.25 INTS.
• Of all the Quarterbacks listed above, who are these 3?

AN INTERESTING BLIND RESUME COMPARISON: (Answers at the end)

• QB D: In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 16.37 completions, 25.37 attempts, 234.5 yards, 2 TD’s and 0.37 INTS.
• -QB E: In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 20.12 completions, 31.25 attempts, 225.13 yards, 1.25 TD’s and 0.62 INTS
• -QB F: In last 8 games vs AP TOP 25, Average game is 18.12 completions, 29.87 attempts, 260.37 yards, 2 TD’s and 0.37 INTS.
• Of all the Quarterbacks listed above, who are these 3?

QB STATS IN LAST 8 GAMES VS AP TOP 25:

• CJ STROUD: 241-323, Completion % of 74.61, 3,126 Passing yards, 26 Passing Touchdowns and 2 INT’s
• BRYCE YOUNG: 192-295, Completion % of 65.08, 2,648 Passing yards, 19 Passing Touchdowns and 5 INT’s
• BO NIX: 161-250, Completion % of 64.40, 1,801 Passing yards, 10 Passing Touchdowns and 5 INT’s
• MAX DUGGAN: 145-239, Completion % of 60.67, 2,083 Passing yards, 16 Passing Touchdowns and 3 INT’s
• STETSON BENNETT: 131-203, Completion % of 64.53, 1,876 Passing yards, 16 Passing Touchdowns and 3 INT’s
• HENDON HOOKER: 171-250, Completion % of 68.40, 2,481 Passing yards, 24 Passing Touchdowns and 2 INT’s
• DTR: 176-268, Completion % of 65.67,2,306 Passing yards, 20 Passing Touchdowns and 9 INT’s
• DJ U (6 games): 102-173, Completion % of 58.96, 1,232 Passing yards, 7 Passing Touchdowns and 6 INT’s
• MICHIGAN QB’S (5 games): 98-156, Completion % of 62.82, 1,228 Passing yards, 6 Passing Touchdowns and 7 INT’s
• CALEB WILLIAMS (4 games): 75-126, Completion % of 59.52, 1,017 Passing yards, 11 Passing Touchdowns and 2 INT’s
• JAYDEN DANIELS: 138-218, Completion % of 63.30, 1,840 Passing yards, 9 Passing Touchdowns and 4 INT’s
• JAXSON DART (2 games): 38-64, Completion % of 59.37, 461 Passing yards, 1 Passing Touchdown and 2 INT’s

The majority of these quarterbacks are very similar in their production. The biggest difference is the turnovers and completion percentage. Only Bennett (4 W’s), Young (1 W), Hooker (1 W), McNamara (1 W), and Nix (1 W) have beaten another QB in the current top 12 of the College Football Playoff rankings as of November 1, 2022.

ANSWERS TO BLIND RESUMES:

• QB A =CJ STROUD
• QB B= BRYCE YOUNG
• QB C= HENDON HOOKER
• QB D= STETSON BENNETT IV
• QB E= BO NIX
• QB F=. MAX DUGGAN

When looking at every quarterback, CJ Stroud pops off the page, but his biggest test is coming at home against Michigan. Hooker and Young are almost identical in regards to their stats. The rest of the group are consistent but have room to grow or need a better supporting cast. Stetson Bennett has been a great blend of cool under pressure and gunslinger. The eye test shows you a little of everything in his arsenal, ranging from wow to hmm, but he makes the plays when needed. Stroud, Young and Hooker dazzle when factoring in the eye test. The most intriguing takeaway I have is centered on the other QB’s on the list, which one will have their moment? A few other questions revolve around Michigan, Clemson and Oregon; if the game is on the line, can they perform at their best and throw to win?

Teams are loaded with talent, but the only position that truly matters in big games is the quarterback. Which quarterback do YOU trust?