THE REALIGNMENT OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS

Conference realignment is a very hot topic across conference offices and athletic departments coast to coast. The fuel to this fire is provided in the form of media revenue. The most recent media collection to secure rights with a conference was when NBC, CBS and FOX worked with the Big Ten to build out a tv and streaming deal. The Big Ten has been fully invested with Fox Sports for many years but this build out a coast to coast branding. The SEC and ACC are fully connected with ESPN / ABC as well as their conference networks, which are supported by the parent media outlet of ESPN. These media deals were enhanced, but also a source to recruitment to attract Texas / Oklahoma to the SEC and USC / UCLA to the Big Ten. The historic deals signed by the SEC and Big Ten are serving as the antagonist to force other leagues to adapt or flounder.

We have all been waiting for the next domino to fall in this redistribution of athletic prowess. Many expect it to be Notre Dame, since they are a very large fish in the sea of intriguing programs. Others are looking out west to see which PAC 12 programs will make their exit and follow the 2 schools from LA. Within the past couple day (written 2/26/23), Florida State started some saber rattling when they told the ACC that they generate more viewership than the majority of the conference, but they only receive 7% of the league revenue. The FSU Athletic Director informed the ACC that “It (the ACC) has to institute an uneven revenue distribution model or FSU is bolting. Don’t ask how, watch. This is fairly straightforward. We have to do something. We are a brand.” These are strong words, but if you listen to The Irrational Confidence Podcast, we looked at the ACC Media Contract and there is strong verbiage that contractually prevents a school from leaving before the current media deal is over. With that said, since FSU is in SEC territory, if they went to the SEC, I doubt the media contract would be painful since both conferences have a deal in place with ESPN/ ABC.

CURRENT CONFERENCE MEDIA CONTRACTS:

**THESE MEDIA CONTRACTS ARE FOR ALL SPORTS EVEN THOUGH FOOTBALL IS KING.

ACC

• NETWORK: ESPN / ABC
• START AND EXPIRATION YEARS: 2016 thru 2036
• CONTRACT LENGHT: INITIAL CONTRACT WAS 12 YEARS, BUT IT WAS EXTENDED THRU 2036
• ANNUAL AVERAGE CONFERENCE REVENUE: $240 MILLION
• NUMBER OF PROGRAMS: 14 PROGRAMS

SEC:

• NETWORK: ESPN / ABC
• START AND EXPIRATION YEARS: 2024 thru 2034
• CONTRACT LENGHT: 10 YEARS
• ANNUAL AVERAGE CONFERENCE REVENUE: $811 MILLION
• NUMBER OF PROGRAMS: 14 FOR 2024-25 YEAR, INCREASING TO 16 FOR THE 2025-26 YEAR

BIG TEN:

• NETWORK: NBC, CBS, FOX
• START AND EXPIRATION YEARS: JULY 1, 2023 thru 2030
• CONTRACT LENGHT: 7 YEARS
• ANNUAL AVERAGE CONFERENCE REVENUE: $350 MILLION FROM NBC & CBS ($700 MM) AND $370 MILLION FROM FOX.
• NUMBER OF PROGRAMS: CURRENTLY 14 AND INCREASE TO 16 WHEN USC & UCLA JOIN

PAC 12:

• NETWORK: ESPN/ ABC & FOX
• START AND EXPIRATION YEARS: 2012 thru 2024
• CONTRACT LENGHT: 12 YEARS
• ANNUAL AVERAGE CONFERENCE REVENUE: $125 MILLION FROM BOTH ESPN /ABC AND FOX ($250 MM TOTAL)
• NUMBER OF PROGRAMS: CURRENTLY 12, BUT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO INCLUDE 10 FOR FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS.

BIG 12:

• NETWORK: ESPN/ ABC & FOX
• START AND EXPIRATION YEARS: 2025 thru 2031 (Based on negotiation to allow TEXAS / OU to leave early and additions of 4 programs starting during final years of current deal).
• CONTRACT LENGHT: 6 YEARS
• ANNUAL AVERAGE CONFERENCE REVENUE: $380 MILLION
• NUMBER OF PROGRAMS: 12 PROGRAMS NOW THAT TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO LEAVE PRIOR TO THIS DEAL STARTING.

As you could see above, the ACC and PAC 12 have the smallest annual media revenue deals. The 14 programs in the ACC doesn’t factor in the influence Notre Dame has on the leagues media presence and revenue. These media deals are fueled by football, but all sports are included in those revenue and broadcast opportunities. With the PAC 12 losing their 2 anchors in USC and UCLA, it paints a dark picture for the future of the league. If they don’t make a serious move to strengthen the league, more exits could force it to collapse. The ACC has a similar situation with FSU making noise about revenue. The only way to keep Florida State is to expand the league participants and renegotiate the current deal. If they can increase their digital footprint, it results in more sports, more regions, more advertising space and more people watching the product. If the Seminoles left the ACC, I’m very confident that they won’t leave alone. The Big 12 on the other hand looked like they were in trouble, but the recent events in the PAC 12 have them in a very healthy position of power.

The real solution to strengthening the landscape of college athletics will forever be focused on money, but we need some structure to maintain the pageantry. At this time of realignment talk and media revenue deals, it serves as the perfect time to do a full set on conferences, scheduling and the sustainability of the FCS/ HBCU programs as well as the Group of 5 programs and leagues themselves. There can be a clear Power 5 ( or 4), while providing growth and financial support to other Division I institutions. Yes, Football is King, but viewership and live attendance numbers for baseball, softball, gymnastics, volleyball, soccer, lacrosse and basketball are growing exponentially. These media opportunities getting more consistent coverage expands revenue chances, increases branding and grows each sport. These sports strengthen a school and conferences media footprint, which in turn should be used in negotiations with networks and streaming partners. The PAC 12 has had numerous media partners walk away from negotiations due to uncertainty, leaving AppleTV as the only one vying for the PAC 12 broadcast rights. Yes AppleTV offers a new path and they have just started a broadcast contract with Major League Soccer (MLS) to show the majority of matches every week without a blackout. That is great to show 14-16 matches a week, but the league also has a deal with Fox Sports to handle their national broadcasts (Games of the Week). The best option is to build a strong League and maximize a deal that offers revenue and broadcasting on all platforms.

I have 2 solutions for the future and they are based on the PAC 12 forging ahead or collapsing all together. Outside of the Texas / Oklahoma and USC / UCLA moves, I scrapped the rest to give us a clean slate. If these moves are going to succeed, it has to be for all sports, not just football and that must include travel distance and cost.

Regardless of the future of the PAC 12, these are some basic foundations that need to implemented across the board for football due to a 12 game schedule. It is the only sport where we don’t have every team play each other within 2 years for most conferences. We also need to reduce the number of fluff games on a schedule. This will actually help viewership and live attendance numbers.

PROPOSED CHANGES FOR ALL FBS COLLEGE FOOTBALL:

• CONFERENCES REMOVE DIVISIONS AND IMPLEMENT 4 PODS
• 9 GAME CONFERENCE SCHEDULE
• 1 GAME AGAINST A POWER 5 SCHOOL
• 1 GAME AGAINST A GROUP OF 5 SCHOOL
• 1 GAME AGAINST A FCS / HBCU SCHOOL ( CAN ONLY OCCUR IN FIRST 3 WEEKS OF THE YEAR)
• THE GROUP OF 5 AND FCS / HBCU REQUIREMENT PROVIDES AN EVEN PLAYING FIELD FOR ALL AS WELL AS PROVIDES FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO THE SMALLER SCHOOLS WHO NEED THE MONEY TO RUN THEIR PROGRAM. THIS TRICKLE DOWN REVENUE SHARING WILL HELP COLLEGE ATHLETES COAST TO COAST.

IF THE PAC 12 SURVIVES, THIS IS MY CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT PROPOSAL TO GET EACH LEAGUE TO 16 PROGRAMS: 4 PODS OF 4 TEAMS IS FOOTBALL ONLY

CONFERENCE SCHEDULE WITH 4 PODS OF 4 TEAMS EACH FOR FOOTBALL ONLY

• PLAY EVERY TEAM IN YOUR POD ANNUALLY (3)
• 2 TEAMS FROM THE 3 OTHER PODS ( 1 HOME & 1 AWAY) (6 GAMES EACH YEAR)
• COMPLETE THE HOME AND AWAY AND THEN ROTATE TO THE OTHER 2 TEAMS
• WILL PLAY EVERY YEAM HOME AND AWAY IN A 4 YEAR WINDOW

SEC:

POD 1:

• GEORGIA
• FLORIDA
• SOUTH CAROLINA
• AUBURN

POD 2:

• ALABAMA
• TENNESSEE
• KENTUCKY
• VANDERBILT

POD 3:

• LSU
• ARKANSAS
• OLE MISS
• MISSISSIPPI STATE

POD 4:

• TEXAS
• OKLAHOMA
• TEXAS A&M
• MISSOURI

BIG TEN:

POD 1:

• OHIO STATE
• MICHIGAN
• PURDUE
• INDIANA

POD 2:

• WISCONSIN
• MINNESOTA
• ILLINOIS
• NORTHWESTERN

POD 3:

• PENN STATE
• MICHIGAN STATE
• MARYLAND
• RUTGERS

POD 4:

• USC
• UCLA
• NEBRASKA
• IOWA

ACC:

POD 1:

• NOTRE DAME
• UCONN
• BOSTON COLLEGE
• SYRACUSE

POD 2:

• NORTH CAROLINA
• DUKE
• NC STATE
• WAKE FOREST

POD 3:

• MIAMI
• CLEMSON
• FSU
• GEORGIA TECH

POD 4:

• VIRGINIA
• VIRGINIA TECH
• LOUISVILLE
• PITT

**NOTRE DAME ALREADY PLAYS THESE SCHOOLS AND UCONN STRENGTHENS THE BASKETBALL FOOTPRINT AS WELL AS REIGNITES OLD BIG EAST BASKETBALL RIVALRIES.

BIG 12:

POD 1:

• KANSAS
• KANSAS STATE
• IOWA STATE
• OKLAHOMA STATE

POD 2:

• WEST VIRGINIA
• CINCINNATI
• UCF
• USF

POD 3:

• TEXAS TECH
• TCU
• BAYLOR
• HOUSTON

POD 4:

• SMU
• TULSA
• MEMPHIS
• TULANE

**USF ADDS A LARGER PRESENCE IN FLORIDA AND MAINTAINS A RIVALRY WITH UCF. SMU, TULSA, MEMPHIS AND TULANE ALL FIT THE GEOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINT AND EXPAND INTO TENNESSEE AND LOUISIANA.

PAC 12:

POD 1:

• UTAH
• COLORADO
• BYU
• BOISE STATE

POD 2:

• STANFORD
• CAL
• FRESNO STATE
• SAN JOSE STATE

POD 3:

• OREGON
• OREGON STATE
• WASHINGTON
• WASHINGTON STATE

POD 4:

• ARIZONA
• ARIZONA STATE
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• NEW MEXICO

**BYU SECURES A LARGE VIEWING AUDIENCE AND MAINTAINS A RIVALRY WITH UTAH. BOISE STATE, FRESNO STATE, SAN JOSE STATE AND SAN DIEGO STATE BRING ATHLETIC SUCCESS AS WELL ADD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ BAY AREA MARKETS.

IF THE PAC 12 COLLAPSES, THIS IS MY CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT PROPOSAL TO GET THE 4 REMAINING POWER CONFERENCES TO 20 PROGRAMS: 4 PODS OF 5 TEAMS IS FOOTBALL ONLY

CONFERENCE SCHEDULE WITH 4 PODS OF 5 TEAMS EACH:

• PLAY EVERY TEAM IN YOU POD ANNUALLY (4 GAMES)
• PLAY 2 TEAMS FROM 2 OTHER PODS (HOME & AWAY), THEN 2 OTHERS
• PLAY 1 TEAM HOME & AWAY , THEN REPEAT, THEN PLAY 3 TEAMS AS WELL AS THE 1 REMAINING TEAM FROM THE OTHER 2 PODS.
• THIS WOULD RESULT IN PLAYING EVERY TEAM HOME AND AWAY IN A 6 YEAR WINDOW.

SEC:

POD 1:

• GEORGIA
• FLORIDA
• SOUTH CAROLINA
• AUBURN
• VANDERBILT

POD 2:

• TENNESSEE
• ALABAMA
• KENTUCKY
• MISSOURI
• MEMPHIS

POD 3:

• OLE MISS
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• LSU
• TULANE
• HOUSTON

POD 4:

• TEXAS
• TEXAS A&M
• OKLAHOMA
• OKLAHOMA STATE
• ARKANSAS

BIG TEN:

• THE OLD DAYS OF AAU ACCREDITATION AS A REQUIREMENT ARE GONE NOW THAT NEBRASKA DOESN’T MEET THOSE STANDARDS. ALSO, FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT THINK FSU AND/ OR NORTH CAROLINA WOULD EXIT THEIR ACC MEDIA REVENUE CONTRACT AND INCUR THOSE PENALTIES TO PLAY IN A TOUGHER FOOTBALL LEAGUE, TOUGHER MEN’S AND WOMEN’S BASKETBALL LEAGUES, LESSER BASEBALL, SOFTBALL AND SOCCER LEAGUES, NOT TO MENTION COLDER FALL/WINTER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE FOOTBALL SEASON MAKES NO SENSE.

POD 1:

• PENN STATE
• MICHIGAN STATE
• INDIANA
• MARYLAND
• RUTGERS

POD 2:

• OHIO STATE
• MICHIGAN
• PURDUE
• NORTHWESTERN
• CINCINNATI

POD 3:

• WISCONSIN
• MINNESOTA
• ILLINOIS
• IOWA
• IOWA STATE

POD 4:

• USC
• UCLA
• OREGON
• WASHINGTON
• NEBRASKA

ACC:

POD 1:

• NOTRE DAME
• SYRACUSE
• BOSTON COLLEGE
• UCONN
• LOUISVILLE

POD 2:

• NORTH CAROLINA
• DUKE
• NC STATE
• WAKE FOREST
• EAST CAROLINA

POD 3:

• MIAMI
• FSU
• UCF
• CLEMSON
• GEORGIA TECH

POD 4:

• VIRGINIA
• VIRGINIA TECH
• WEST VIRGINIA
• PITT
• LIBERTY

BIG 12:

POD 1:

• KANSAS
• KANSAS STATE
• BAYLOR
• TCU
• TEXAS TECH

POD 2:

• WASHINGTON STATE
• OREGON STATE
• CAL
• STANFORD
• BOISE STATE

POD 3:

• BYU
• UTAH
• COLORADO
• COLORADO STATE
• NEVADA

POD 4:

• ARIZONA
• ARIZONA STATE
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• FRESNO STATE
• SAN JOSE STATE

IN ADDITION TO THE GROWTH OF THESE CONFERENCES, THE GROUP OF 5 CONFERENCES WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR OTHERS TO MOVE.

• I DON’T FORSEE THE MAC SEEING ANY CHANGES DUE TO THE HISTORICAL NATURE OF THEIR FOOTPRINT. THE SUNBELT MIGHT SEE 1 OR 2 CHANGES, BUT NOTHING DRASTIC.

FUTURE AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC) AFTER MOVES NOTED ABOVE:

AAC EAST:

• ARMY
• NAVY
• TEMPLE
• FAU
• FIU
• CHARLOTTE
• USF

AAC WEST:

• SMU
• TULSA
• UTSA
• MTSU
• SOUTHERN MISS
• UAB
• WESTERN KENTUCKY

FUTURE MOUNTAIN WEST AFTER MOVES NOTED ABOVE:

EAST DIVISION:

• LOUISIANA
• LA TECH
• RICE
• NORTH TEXAS
• SAM HOUSTON STATE
• TEXAS STATE
• UTEP

WEST DIVISION:

• UTAH STATE
• AIR FORCE
• WYOMING
• UNLV
• NEW MEXICO
• NEW MEXICO STATE
• HAWAII

** GROUP OF 5 PROGRAMS WOULD PLAY A 10 GAME CONFERENCE SCHEDULE, AS WELL AT LEAST 1 POWER CONFERENCE OPPONENT.

A FEW SCHEDULE EXAMPLES BASED ON THE 4 TWENTY TEAM POWER CONFERENCES:

GEORGIA:

• FLORIDA
• AUBURN
• SOUTH CAROLINA
• VANDERBILT
• ALABAMA
• KENTUCKY
• LSU
• MISSISSIPPI STATE
• OKLAHOMA
• GEORGIA TECH
• UAB
• FCS OPPONENT

OHIO STATE:

• MICHIGAN
• PURDUE
• NORTHWESTERN
• CINCINNATI
• PENN STATE
• RUTGERS
• MINNESOTA
• ILLINOIS
• OREGON
• VIRGINIA TECH
• TOLEDO
• FCS OPPONENT

FSU:

• GEORGIA TECH
• CLEMSON
• MIAMI
• UCF
• SYRACUSE
• NOTRE DAME
• N C STATE
• EAST CAROLINA
• PITT
• FLORIDA
• GA SOUTHERN
• FCS OPPONENT

OREGON:

• UCLA
• USC
• WASHINGTON
• NEBRASKA
• MICHIGAN STATE
• INDIANA
• OHIO STATE
• ILLINOIS
• NORTHWESTERN
• OREGON STATE
• UTAH STATE
• FCS OPPONENT

TEXAS:

• OKLAHOMA
• OKLAHOMA STATE
• TEXAS A&M
• ARKANSAS
• SOUTH CAROLINA
• AUBURN
• TENNESSEE
• MEMPHIS
• HOUSTON
• TCU
• UTSA
• FCS OPPONENT

WISCONSIN:

• MINNESOTA
• ILLINOIS
• IOWA
• IOWA STATE
• MARYLAND
• MICHIGAN STATE
• MICHIGAN
• NORTHWESTERN
• USC
• SAN DIEGO STATE
• NORTHERN ILLINOIS
• FCS OPPONENT

TCU:

• KANSAS
• KANSAS STATE
• TEXAS TECH
• BAYLOR
• OREGON STATE
• CAL
• UTAH
• COLORADO STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• TEXAS
• SMU
• FCS OPPONENT

THE LANDSCAPE IS CHANGING, BUT WE MUST TRY TO PROTECT THE PAGEANTRY OF COLLEGE ATHLETICS. RIVALRIES AND REGIONAL INFLUENCE MUST REMAIN IN PLACE FOR COLLEGE ATHLETICS TO REMAIN SEPARATE. FROM THE PROFESSIONAL LEAGUES. AS IMPORTANT AS REVENUE IS FOR THESE VARIOUS INSTITUTIONS IN PROVIDING THE BEST IN ALL AREAS FOR THE STUDENT ATHLETES, THE CONSUMER NEEDS TO ACCOUNTED FOR. THE CONSUMER GREW UP WITH RIVALRIES AND REGIONAL BRAGGING RIGHTS. IT IS STILL VERY ODD SEEING UTAH AND COLORADO IN THE PAC 12 , OR NEBRASKA, RUTGERS AND MARYLAND IN THE BIG TEN.

IF YOU’RE LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL SOLUTIONS, TUNE INTO THE IRRATIONAL CONFIDENCE PODCAST (@IRConfidencePod) FOR OUR FULL DISCUSSION. OUR PODCAST IS AVAILABLE ON ALL PLATFORMS AS WELL AS THE SPINNABLE SPORTS YOUTUBE CHANNEL.