College Football Playoff Rankings- The Blind Test

The wait is finally over! On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff Committee will release their top 25 and the jockeying for the Playoffs can officially begin. It’s weird to think that there are only four weeks left in the regular season and then onto the conference championship games. With all the talk on who should be in the College Football Playoff, we came out with a blind test of the top teams in the AP voting to see who should really be ranked in the top spots when the rankings are released. The following criteria was used to determine the top teams:

1. Number of wins over AP Ranked teams at the time of the game.
2. Number of wins over teams with 5+ wins after week 9.
3. Average margin of victory.

Now this criterion does not take into account the “eye test” but it is interesting to see how the teams measure out on paper. Here’s how the teams came out:

Team A– 3 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 5 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 17.25 points

Team B– 2 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 3 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 32 points

Team C– 5 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 4 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 28.375 points

Team D– 4 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 5 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 17 points

Team E– 1 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 3 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 31.25 points

Team F-2 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 3 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 26.5 points

Team G– 1 wins against AP Ranked Teams; 2 wins against teams with 5+ wins; 29.25 points

It’s clear that Team C and Team D so far this season have been the best on paper. The current ranking went like this:

1. Team C
2. Team D
3. Team A
4. Team B
5. Team E
6. Team F
7. Team G

Which would translate to the following rankings:

1. Tennessee
2. TCU
3. Clemson
4. Ohio St.
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Michigan

Now, do either of us think that these will be the actual rankings when the Playoff Committee puts out the first set of rankings? Absolutely not. This is where the eye test comes into play. Plus the committee would not put the defending National Champion, Georgia, who is currently undefeated at 8-0 at number 5. Georgia’s remaining schedule is tougher than Clemson, Ohio St., TCU and Tennessee. Plus, Notre Dame could play spoiler in week 10 if they can knock off Clemson in South Bend. It’s a fun though to look at these teams on paper and see how each of them measure up to their counterparts. Tune in to our Week 9 Recap of the Irrational Confidence Podcast as we talk about the possible teams and join us the rest of the way as we preview games each week of the College Football season.