Spinnable Sports Your Sports, Our Spin
College Football Saturdays are awesome when it comes to betting on football, and today is no different. Based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of each matchup, this is the bet to make.
When comparing teams a key factor to focus on is Net Points Per Drive (NPPD). Combining this information with each team’s pace of play provides an opportunity to estimate expected win/loss margin. Once doing this for each team individually, these expected ranges can be combined to determine a range for the overall expected outcome.
Pittsburgh -9.5
PITT: +1.68 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Pittsburgh should win by 19.8 to 25.2 points.
MIAMI: -0.77 Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Miami should lose by 9.24 to 11.55 points.
Expected Result
Pittsburgh wins by 10.56 to 13.65 points.
Wake Forest -16.5
WAKE FOREST: +1.61 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Wake Forest should win by 24.15 to 28.98 points.
DUKE: -0.67 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Duke should lose by 10.05 to 12.06 points.
Expected Result
Wake Forest wins by 14.1 to 16.92 points.
South Alabama -9
SOUTH ALABAMA: +0.56 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, South Alabama should win by 6.72 to 8.4 points.
ARKANSAS STATE: -1.83 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Arkansas State should lose by 21.96 to 27.45 points.
Expected Result
South Alabama wins by 15.24 to 19.05 points.
UL Monroe +27
APPALACHIAN STATE: +0.50 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Appalachian State should win by 6 to 7.5 points.
UL MONROE: -1.17 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, UL Monroe should lose by 14.04 to 17.55 points.
Expected Result
Appalachian State wins by 8.04 to 10.05 points.
Arizona +21.5
USC: -0.39 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, USC should lose by 4.56 to 5.7 points.
ARIZONA: -1.58 Net Points Per Drive
Based on NPPD plus pace of play, Arizona should lose by 18.96 to 23.7 points.
Expected Result
USC wins by 14.4 to 18 points.
