CFB VALIDATION & LEARNING

What is the Battlefield actually learning?

Compare frozen pregame college-football intelligence with Final outcomes, separate directional reliability from margin error, inspect confidence and evidence cohorts, and quarantine contaminated observations before any future calibration is considered.

Learning stateMaturing sample208 eligible Finals
Eligible Finals208Frozen observations allowed into aggregate learning
Excluded Finals12Preserved for review, excluded from calibration
Directional checks559Aligned or contradicted Battlefield dimensions
Alignment63.1%Descriptive directional alignment, not causal accuracy
Margin MAE15.2Average absolute point error between frozen projection and Final margin
LEARNING STATUS

Validation readiness: Maturing sample

A broader prospective sample is available for review across confidence and evidence cohorts. Any future tuning still requires a separate governed calibration release.

Observation onlyThis Lab never retunes Battlefield weights, confidence, recommendation qualification, or customer-facing output automatically.
How to read the progress barsThe second number is a review reference target, not the total number of Final games or checks available. Neutral Battlefield dimensions do not create directional checks, so these targets provide sample context rather than a pass/fail calibration gate.
Eligible Finals208 collectedReview reference: 25 prospective eligible Finals
Directional checks559 collectedReview reference: 75 non-neutral dimension checks
Margin samples208 collectedReview reference: 25 frozen projections with Final results
METRIC GUIDEWhat the Lab numbers mean
Directional checkOne non-neutral Battlefield dimension compared with the Final winner. One game can contribute multiple checks.
AlignmentThe share of directional checks whose frozen pregame lean was on the Final winner. It is descriptive alignment, not causal accuracy.
Margin MAEMean absolute error between the frozen projected home margin and the Final home margin. Lower is closer; zero is exact.
Margin biasFrozen projected home margin minus Final home margin. Negative means the projection understated the home margin; positive means it overstated it.
ConfidencePregame evidence confidence attached to a Battlefield dimension. It is not a win probability.
CONFIDENCE RELIABILITY

Does higher confidence separate the sample?

Each directional Battlefield dimension is grouped by the confidence that existed before kickoff.

State guideCollecting<12 directionalEarly evidence12–24 directionalSupportiveMixedReview25+ directional; observed alignment determines state
30–39%74.6%71 directional · Supportive
40–49%71.4%7 directional · Collecting
50–59%68.4%57 directional · Supportive
60–69%65.1%106 directional · Supportive
70%+58.8%318 directional · Supportive
PROJECTION ERROR

How close are frozen margin projections?

Projection error is evaluated separately from directional alignment so a correct side and a correct magnitude are not treated as the same thing.

Margin MAE15.2n=208 · Median 12.4
Margin bias-4.4n=208 · Projected minus Final home margin; negative = understated home margin
BATTLEFIELD DIMENSIONS

Which team-level signals are holding up?

Only eligible frozen observations contribute. Neutral dimensions are not forced into directional wins or losses.

DimensionDirectional sampleAlignmentAvg confidenceAvg historical shareState
Team Strength19473.7%72.6%64.4%Supportive
Current Form18365.6%59.3%60.9%Supportive
Schedule Strength18249.5%65.5%62.9%Mixed
CURRENT-SEASON DEPTH

How does evidence depth change the read?

Baseline, emerging, developing and established current-season samples are kept separate rather than blended into one headline rate.

Baseline only208 games · Reviewable sample
63.1%directional alignment · n=559
15.2margin MAE · n=208
208eligible games
HISTORICAL CONTEXT

What happens as prior influence fades?

Games are grouped by how much earlier team evidence still influenced the frozen pregame projection.

Light historical context208 games · Reviewable sample
63.1%directional alignment · n=559
15.2margin MAE · n=208
208eligible games
MATCHUP LEVEL

Keep FBS vs FBS and FBS vs FCS learning separate

Legitimate cross-subdivision games remain eligible, but their uncertainty structure is never silently mixed with FBS-vs-FBS games.

FBS vs FBS190 games · Reviewable sample
61.7%directional alignment · n=512
14.2margin MAE · n=190
190eligible games
FBS vs FCS18 games · Early evidence
78.7%directional alignment · n=47
26.4margin MAE · n=18
18eligible games
CALIBRATION GOVERNANCE

Excluded observations stay visible without teaching the model

Identity-contaminated or otherwise governed observations remain reviewable for transparency but are removed from aggregate learning metrics.

Shared calibration handoff preparedCFB production calibration remains inactive until a separate governed adapter and explicit release are approved.
12 excluded FinalsThese observations remain in the audit trail but do not contribute to alignment, confidence, projection, or cohort metrics.
Exclusion reasonGames
Subdivision identity mismatch12
RECENT VALIDATIONS

Game-by-game learning trail

Open any completed Game to inspect the exact frozen pregame evidence and its postgame review. Excluded observations remain labeled.

Eligible FinalBoise State @ Fresno StateBoise State 38 · Fresno State 31
3/3 aligned6.0 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Excluded FinalHawaii @ Arizona StateHawaii 12 · Arizona State 30
2/2 aligned5.7 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalJames Madison @ Georgia SouthernJames Madison 27 · Georgia Southern 24
2/3 aligned9.5 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalMinnesota @ PurdueMinnesota 13 · Purdue 41
1/3 aligned33.2 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalKansas @ UtahKansas 24 · Utah 41
2/3 aligned1.7 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalAir Force @ Northern IllinoisAir Force 28 · Northern Illinois 7
2/2 aligned14.0 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalLouisiana @ Louisiana TechLouisiana 31 · Louisiana Tech 32
1/3 aligned1.9 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalUSC @ Penn StateUSC 31 · Penn State 23
1/3 aligned9.9 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalGeorgia @ AlabamaGeorgia 20 · Alabama 17
1/2 aligned0.9 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalSyracuse @ VirginiaSyracuse 25 · Virginia 28
2/3 aligned11.3 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalUAB @ MemphisUAB 13 · Memphis 38
2/3 aligned13.2 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalNorth Dakota State @ UNLVNorth Dakota State 7 · UNLV 13
1/3 aligned9.5 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalCoastal Carolina @ MarshallCoastal Carolina 27 · Marshall 21
1/3 aligned10.8 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→
Eligible FinalNevada @ UTEPNevada 30 · UTEP 13
3/3 aligned14.3 margin MAE · Baseline only · FBS vs FBS
→