COLORADO & NEBRASKA: RETURN TO GLORY OR FALSE HOPE?

Theses once proud programs have hit rock bottom as of late. The Buffaloes won the 1990 National Championship and had some success through the 90’s and early 2000’s. Unfortunately, since around 2008 they have fallen down the Rocky Mountains. The Cornhuskers under Tom Osborne were a machine, capturing 3 National Titles in the early 1990’s. They were the standard for toughness and success, but once Coach Osborne retired and Frank Solich was fired, the standard of winning slipped significantly. How long until these programs return and what is a respectable 2023 campaign?

Not only are these programs tied at the hip with these monumental coaching hires, they are historic hated football rivals. If this rivalry can be reborn at the same time as the rebuilding of their football teams, only good things can come from it. It would be cool if College GameDay and/or Fox was on location in Boulder on September 9th.

CAN THEY RHULE AFTER PRIME COACHING HIRES?

The glory days of Colorado football spanned 3 Head Coaches between 1982 and 2005. Bill McCarthy, Rick Neuheisel and Gary Barnett combined for a 175-108-5 record (.616% winning %). The Head Coach with the best winning percentage since then was Mike MacIntyre with a percentage of .405. Excluding Mel Tucker’s 1 year at the helm, Colorado has won 63 games between 2011 and 2022. Now we enter the age of PRIME TIME and this is a completely different stratosphere compared to anything the Buffaloes have known since 1990.

The other once proud football power that has a new coach and possibly a bright future ahead is located in Lincoln, Nebraska. Tom Osborne took what Bob Devaney built in the 1960’s and early 1970’s, including 2 National Championships and went beyond. Between 1973 and 1997, the Cornhuskers went 255-49-3 (.836%), 13 conference titles and 3 National Titles in 4 years (94’, 95’& 97’). Coach Osborne was followed by Frank Solich, who went 58-19 in 6 years, he is also credited with the last conference championship Nebraska has won. Bill Callahan went 27-22, which is far from the Cornhuskers standard. Nebraska fans were given some hope under Bo Pelini between 2008 & 2014, when they went 67-27. Who would have thought that Bo Pelini would become revered in Cornhusker linage, but the next 4 men to be named Head Coach or Interim HC made that possible. Since Pelini was canned, Nebraska has gone 38-57. Now that Matt Rhule has stepped on campus, his reputation for rebuilding programs will be put to the ultimate test.

Coach Prime and Coach Rhule have a lot to fix in both locations, but they have evidence of turning around programs, especially in places where expectations were low.

THE STRUGGLE HAS BEEN REAL:

• EXCLUDING THE SHORT 2020 COVID SEASON

NEBRASKA LOSING SEASONS SINCE THE START OF 2012: 7, INCLUDING 6 STRAIGHT

COLORADO LOSING SEASONS SINCE THE START OF 2012: 9, INCLUDING THE LAST 2

• 10-4 IN 2016 WITH A LOSS IN THE PAC 12 TITLE GAME AND THE ALAMO BOWL

LAST BOWL GAME:

• NEBRASKA: 12/30/16. MUSIC CITY BOWL VS TENNESSEE
• COLORADO: DECEMBER 2016 ALAMO BOWL VS OKLAHOMA STATE

LAST WINNING SEASON:

• NEBRASKA: 2016. 9-4. LOSS IN MUSIC CITY BOWL
• COLORADO: 2016. 10-4. PLAYED IN THE PAC 12 TITLE GAME & LOST IN THE ALAMO BOWL

LAST 10 PLUS VICTORY SEASON:

• NEBRASKA: 2012. 10-4. LOST TO GEORGIA IN THE CAPITAL ONE BOWL ON 1/1/13
• COLORADO: 2016. 10-4 PLAYED IN THE PAC 12 TITLE GAME & LOST IN THE ALAMO BOWL

LAST CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP:

• NEBRASKA: 1999 BIG 12 CHAMPIONS
• COLORADO: 2001 BIG 12 CHAMPIONS

LAST TOP 25 RECRUITING CLASS PRIOR TO 2023: (PER RIVALS)

• NEBRASKA FINISHED 18TH IN 2021, 17TH IN 2020, 15TH IN 2019, 21ST IN 2018 & 20TH IN 2017…MUST HAVE BEEN THE COACHING.
• COLORADO FINISHED 15TH IN 2008.

LAST TOP 10 RECRUITING CLASS: (PER RIVALS)

• NEBRASKA FINISHED WITH THE 5TH OVERALL CLASS IN 2005. THAT CLASS INCLUDED NDAMUKONG SUH & CURRENT BENGALS HEAD COACH ZAC TAYLOR (A TRANSFER).
• COLORADO FINISHED WITH THE 10TH OVERALL CLASS IN 2002

COLORADO GOING FORWARD:

Coach Prime picked Colorado and that is the key to this potential resurgence. He could have gone a few different places, but he chose Ralphie and the Rocky Mountains. He is bringing with him swagger that Boulder has never seen before. Colorado had Slash in the early 1990’s and now they have Prime Time! In addition to his larger than life personality, he is bringing his son Shedeur Sanders and elite 2 way phenom Travis Hunter. His impact was felt almost immediately by bringing in 17 other D1 transfers, the top JUCO Offensive Tackle and 3 ESPN Top 300 Recruits by Signing Day 2023. The gem of this instant recruiting class is 5 Star Cornerback Cormani McClain.

The roster overhaul is just beginning and you can’t predict the 2023 Buffaloes based off of 2022. The Buffs have been very active in the Transfer Portal since the day Prime arrived. 27 players have transferred in and 22 have transferred out (including 8 between April 15th and 17th) in the short time he’s been in charge. The 49 players in total is the highest transfer turnover in the nation. This is a complete foundational overhaul and it will take time, but you have to start somewhere. When Prime arrived at Jackson State, people had their doubts and in a short time he turned them into a HBCU & FCS Powerhouse. According to ESPN, they already have 5 commitments for 2024, including 2 in the Top 300 (#88 Overall DT Omar White & #293 Overall Ju’Juan Johnson), so there’s evidence of momentum.

COLORADO’S 2023 SCHEDULE:

• SEPT 2ND: AT TCU
• SEPT 9TH: VS NEBRASKA
• SEPT 16TH: VS COLORADO STATE
• SEPT 23RD: AT OREGON
• SEPT 30TH: VS USC
• OCT. 7TH: AT ARIZONA STATE
• OCT 13TH: VS STANFORD
• OCT 20TH: BYE WEEK
• OCT 28TH: AT UCLA
• NOV. 4TH: VS OREGON STATE
• NOV 11TH: VS ARIZONA
• NOV 17TH: AT WASHINGTON STATE
• NOV 25TH: AT UTAH

The schedule doesn’t do Coach Prime and the Buffaloes any favors, but it does test this program and challenge them to improve.

WHAT IS A SUCCESSFUL SEASON? 6 Wins in 2023 would be astronomical

WHAT IS REALITY FOR THIS TEAM IN 2023? 4, maybe 5 wins is realistic right now because the depth of the roster is still limited. If they are 3-4 going into the bye week, a bowl game is possible.

NEBRASKA GOING FORWARD:

Matt Rhule was canned by the Panthers, but he returns to the arena that he knows very well…rebuilding a college football program from the bottom up. Big Red thought the glory days would return at the hand of their trusted son Scott Frost, but the best season he could produce was 5-7 in 2019. Coach Rhule has rebuilt Temple and Baylor, but this will require hard work and patience.

The expectations at Nebraska are as high as they can be in the game. The hallways are littered with nods to the famed Black Shirt Defenses, Tommie Frazier, Lawrence Phillips, Joel Makovicka, Grant Wistrom, Ahman Green, Eric Crouch, Dominic Raiola and Ndamukong Suh among countless others. This program won 3 National Championships in 4 years, outside of Alabama (09’,11’,12’), no other program in the last 40 some odd years can match that…these are the expectations in Nebraska.

There is talent on the roster and the Big 10 West isn’t the Big 10 East or SEC West. There are wins available if the team can play complete and competent football. If this program returns to its heritage of physical football, success will follow. They return QB Casey Thompson, QB Chubba Purdy (Brock’s brother) and welcome transfer Jeff Sims, previously of Georgia Tech. The 2023 signing class consisted of 38 players; 4 ranked in the ESPN Top 300 and 10 D1 Transfers.

D1 TRANSFERS:

• QB. JEFF SIMS FROM GA TECH
• TE. ARIK GILBERT FROM GEORGIA
• LB. MJ SHERMAN FROM GEORGIA
• OT. JACOB HOOD FROM GEORGIA
• DT. ELIJAH JEUDY FROM TEXAS A&M
• LB. CHIEF BORDERS FROM FLORIDA
• CB. COREY COLLIER FROM FLORIDA
• WR. JOSH FLEEKS FROM BAYLOR

Coach Rhule has been given every resource, but in the end it’s up to him, his staff and the players to flip the script in Memorial Stadium. This could be the ignition point for the program to return to prominence. There’s a recruit with Husker connections that could be the Chosen One if he decides to come home. The #1 Overall recruit in the 2024 Class is QB Dylan Raiola and his father is Nebraska legend and All American Dominic Raiola. As of April 10th, it appears to be a 2 horse race between the Back 2 Back National Champion Georgia Bulldogs and the Cornhuskers. If Rhule can land the commitment of Dylan Raiola, then the turnaround could occur faster.

NEBRASKA’S 2023 SCHEDULE:

• AUG 31ST: AT MINNESOTA
• SEPT 9TH: AT COLORADO
• SEPT 16TH: VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
• SEPT 23RD: VS LA TECH
• SEPT 30TH: VS MICHIGAN
• OCT. 7TH: AT ILLINOIS
• OCT 14TH: BYE WEEK
• OCT 21ST: VS NORTHWESTERN
• OCT 28TH: VS PURDUE
• NOV 4TH: AT MICHIGAN STATE
• NOV 11TH: VS MARYLAND
• NOV 18TH: AT WISCONSIN
• NOV 24TH: VS IOWA

This is a manageable schedule for the Cornhuskers but they can’t overlook anyone (see Ga Southern 2022).

WHAT IS A SUCCESSFUL 2023 SEASON? 7-5 AND A BOWL GAME

WHAT IS REALITY FOR THIS TEAM? 6-6…I think they can beat Colorado, No Illinois, La Tech and Northwestern. The season comes down to their road games at Minnesota, at Illinois, at Michigan State and at Wisconsin….can they win on the road?

Both coaches make their debuts on Saturday for their respective Spring Games. I expect Big Red to sell out Memorial Stadium, but Coach Prime has definitely moved the needle in Boulder. The Buffaloes Spring Game is sold out and televised live on ESPN…expectations are no longer hazy, but Rocky Mountain high.

These 2 programs will be under a microscope, but I’m buying what both coaches are selling. If they get a full 3 years to build depth, these programs will be making significant noise by 2026. I love that they will reignite the historic Colorado / Nebraska rivalry and to add spice, this years event will be Colorado’s home opener. Both of these programs need patience and fan support, but also unrestricted financial support from their boosters and athletic departments. In the age of NIL, the name of the coach or the prestige of the program can only go so far….it all comes down to getting to the NFL, winning championships and getting paid.

At the conclusion of the 2025 season (3 year sample size), I believe both programs will be drastically improved. I think Colorado will produce a 3 year record of 21-17 including 2 bowl trips and 1 bowl win between today and the end of the 2025 season. The Buffaloes will be a legit PAC 12 Title contender entering the 2026 season. Nebraska on the other hand, might be a Big 10 Title Game participant by 2025 because the West is so wide open and unpredictable every year. Cornhusker fans…you will get a bowl game this season. It will take a lot of work and money to get both of these programs back to National prominence with regular top 10 finishes and that reality must be understood!

Can’t wait for the College Football Season to kickoff and these hated rivals to meet in Folsom Field as they both begin their rebuilding efforts.